voyager3 писал(а): ↑Вс апр 13, 2025 8:16 am
alex_127 писал(а): ↑Вс апр 13, 2025 5:53 am
Тяжело против экономики пытаться выехать на примерах «а вчера один мой знакомый»…
Только почему -то средняя температура по больнице никогда не соответствует реальности, данной мне в ощущениях.
Зы дэйта и стадиз хэв шовн - новая версия божественных откровений, перед которыми надо падать ниц и следовать, не раздумывая.
Мне опять железяку тащить вам приходится
People often perceive inflation as higher than officially reported due to several psychological, economic, and methodological factors. Here’s a detailed breakdown of the key reasons:
---
### 1. **Focus on "Price Levels" vs. "Inflation Rates"**
- **Official inflation metrics** (like the CPI) measure the *rate of change* in prices over the past year, not absolute price levels. For example, if inflation drops from 9% to 3%, prices are still rising—just more slowly. However, consumers compare today’s prices to pre-pandemic levels (e.g., groceries up 25% since 2020), which feels starkly higher .
- **Salient items**: People notice frequent purchases like food, gas, and housing more than infrequent ones (e.g., appliances). These categories have seen outsized hikes (e.g., eggs +43%, turkey +37% since 2020), making inflation feel worse than the "average" CPI suggests .
---
### 2. **CPI’s Limitations**
- **Averages mask individual experiences**: The CPI tracks a national "basket of goods," but costs vary by location (e.g., gas prices in California vs. Texas) and lifestyle (e.g., commuting distance).
- **Weighting issues**: Housing (32% of CPI) and food (13%) dominate budgets, but their weightings may not reflect personal spending. For instance, renters facing 20%+ rent hikes feel inflation more acutely than the CPI’s aggregate figure.
- **Substitution bias**: The CPI assumes consumers switch to cheaper alternatives (e.g., chicken for beef), but many can’t or won’t, leading to higher real-world costs.
---
### 3. **Wage Growth Lag**
- Even if wages eventually outpace inflation (as they did in 2023), **cumulative price rises** since 2020–2022 eroded purchasing power. Lower-income workers, despite recent wage gains, still face a 25%+ hike in essentials like food .
- **Psychological anchoring**: People remember pre-pandemic prices ($2.42/gallon gas) and resent current levels ($3.44), even if inflation slows .
---
### 4. **Media and Political Narratives**
- **Selective reporting**: Media often highlights extreme price jumps (e.g., Walmart turkey up 114%) without context, fueling perception gaps .
- **Political framing**: Critics of government policies (e.g., stimulus spending) blame them for inflation, reinforcing skepticism of official data .
---
### 5. **Behavioral Economics: The "Money Illusion"**
- People fixate on nominal prices (e.g., "$6 for bread") rather than relative value (e.g., wages also rose). Harvard research found consumers view inflation as purely negative, unlike economists who tie it to economic growth .
- **Recency bias**: Recent price spikes (e.g., 2022’s 9.1% inflation) loom larger in memory than slower current rises .
---
### 6. **Hidden Costs and Shrinkflation**
- Companies offset costs by reducing product sizes (e.g., smaller cereal boxes) or adding fees (e.g., restaurant surcharges), which aren’t fully captured in CPI .
---
### Why It Matters
This disconnect undermines trust in economic data and fuels political discontent, as seen in low approval ratings for economic policies despite improving metrics . The Fed’s focus on *inflation rates* (not price levels) also means relief—like rate cuts—won’t reverse past hikes, prolonging frustration .
For further reading, see analyses from Harvard economists or the Cleveland Fed on inflation vs. relative-price changes .
купить два новых инспекционных судна, два беспилотника дальнего радиуса действия и две дополнительные команды собачьих упряжек. (Минобороны Дании)
**Mild inflation helps slightly** (if growth is strong). 
**High inflation backfires** by spiking borrowing costs and destabilizing the economy. 
